New Energy Vehicle Retail Market Faces Pressure in December 2025 Amid Surging Exports

[Market Dynamics] NEV retail sales saw a slight month-over-month increase in December but slowed year-over-year, with exports doubling year-on-year to become the key driver for the full year.

Key Data: Slight MoM Retail Growth, YoY Export Surge of 120%

1.337 million units were sold in the new energy passenger vehicle retail market in December, up 2.6% year-over-year and 1.2% month-over-month; wholesale volume reached 1.563 million units, increasing just 3.3% year-over-year; exports hit 270,000 units, soaring 120% year-over-year.

Strategic Fundamentals: Dual Pressure from Policy Rollbacks and Rising Raw Material Costs

Year-end exhaustion of local government subsidies for trade-in programs, combined with rising prices of non-ferrous raw materials such as lithium carbonate, intensified consumer hesitation. Automakers proactively slowed production to reduce inventory and prepare for a strong start to the 15th Five-Year Plan period.

Industry Impact: 2026 Growth Rate May Drop to Around 10%

The China Passenger Car Association forecasts that due to policy adjustments and weak demand, NEV market growth in 2026 will slow to approximately 10%, marking the industry’s transition into a new equilibrium phase characterized by fewer price cuts and milder promotions.