2026 Auto Market Starts Under Pressure as Multiple Automakers Set Aggressive Targets

[Market Dynamics] The 2026 auto market has gotten off to a sluggish start, yet 13 major automakers have collectively set an ambitious sales target of 24.55 million vehicles.

Key Data: January Sales Plunge Year-over-Year

From January 1 to 18, nationwide passenger vehicle retail sales dropped 28% year-over-year to 679,000 units, including 312,000 new energy vehicles (NEVs), which declined 16% year-over-year. According to Morgan Stanley, among the 13 automakers, only JAC Motors and NIO reported month-over-month growth in orders.

Strategic Outlook: New Entrants More Aggressive, Traditional OEMs More Cautious

Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance (HIMA) maintains the most aggressive target at 1 million units. Leapmotor, Xiaomi, and XPeng have each set sales targets implying growth of approximately 50%. In contrast, Geely, Chery, and Changan have set targets in the range of 3.2–3.3 million units, representing modest year-over-year increases of about 14–15%. The industry forecasts overall market growth for 2026 to be only 1–3%, with policy phase-outs and front-loaded demand cited as the primary sources of pressure.